Meeting after 25 years...1984-2009: a lot has happened. We are in our forties, most of us are married, worked hard towards a successful career and family. A lot has happened in the world as well. Not counting a few minor hiccups, the world continues to get nicer, safer by all measures. The predictability of life in general continues to increase. Life expectancy continues to grow. Of course, probably the biggest accomplishment of the last 25 years has been in the field of communication whether it be cell phones, Blackberrys, iPhones or internet. Then there are those issues that haven’t progressed as much as one would have liked them to: human rights, poverty, energy crisis, religious conflict.
The rate of change varies across different parts of the world at different times in history. Clearly, India is one of the happening places right now with dramatic growth not just in wealth but in education, equality, democracy and human rights. In the middle of all this where have we spent our time. Probably a significant part of our energy has been in building a career whether professional or setting up a industry, understanding the rules of the game, adapting to the dramatically changing environment and in addition, finding the right life partner, having kids and watching them grow. Full of challenges, accomplishments, fun and sorrow, up and downs.....and has gotten us to here.
But what about the next 25 years: what will we look back to at our 50 year get together or to put in another way what should be aim to create in the next 25 years that would be fun to look back at in 2034. Some trends look unstoppable: communications will improve, world will continue to get hotter (in spite of the best efforts of the environmentalists), smaller and flatter; importance of education both for the individual and the society as a whole shall be an ever increasing determinant of prosperity and lifestyle. War (at least in the traditional sense) shall continue to become rarer. Just to spend a little time on a current hot topic: the environment. There are more unknowns than knowns although some would say that is true for any situation trying to predict the future. However the likelihood of humans getting it together to reverse the driving forces for global warming seems slim at the current moment. India shall play an ever increasing role on the world stage. Journalistic and individual freedom of speech in India is reaching maturity and reaching a stage of irreversibility. It will play an ever growing counterforce to unreasonable political will and (in the absence of good opposition at the parliamentary level) shall represent one of the greatest forces of democracy.
On the resource front things can go in several directions. There may be some massive shift in energy resources solving the whole energy crisis. In some ways it is amazing that there is an energy crisis given all the energy surrounding us; the chair that i am currently sitting on probably has sufficient energy (e=mc2) to feel whole of Delhi for a month. The question is whether we can tame that energy and utilize it. Similarly there does not seem to be a shortage of wind or solar energy either. However, in my opinion what is more likely over the next 25 years is a slow dramatic change towards meeting the world’s growing energy needs.
It is unlikely that the demand for oil/gas is going to suddenly reduce but instead shall be complimented by a whole variety of alternative energy sources (so, if you a long term investor.......you know where to go!).
Religiosity as a whole can also go in several directions. In general terms, education especially scientific education is inversely proportional to religiousness of society. However, I get a distinct feeling that the last decade has shown significant increase in religious fervour. How it would affect us individually as we enter our middle years would, of course, be highly variable.
Religiosity as a whole can also go in several directions. In general terms, education especially scientific education is inversely proportional to religiousness of society. However, I get a distinct feeling that the last decade has shown significant increase in religious fervour. How it would affect us individually as we enter our middle years would, of course, be highly variable.
A few words on health care: in general terms the biggest advancements in health care over the last century have been: clean water, vaccines and antibiotics. Over the last 25 years, the biggest change has been in organization and delivery of health care and secondly, an increase in understanding of the human body and disease processes. Many of these advancements have yet to reach their full potential. As an example, the human genome project has been successfully completed but has, for the most part, yet to reach practical usefulness. Concepts around nanotechnology are reaching maturity. Some of the earliest versions of nano-bots are being tried. Targeted drug therapy using nano-vehicles are being developed. So where is this going to go over the next 25 years: probably increasingly towards individualized medicine. The process of disease is an interaction between the host (you or me), the agent (such as a virus) and the environment (drinking unclean water). The last century has focussed on the agent (kill it with antibiotics) or the environment but hardly on the host. Traditional teaching has been centred on treatments based on an understanding of the environment or the agent eg. Diagnose pneumonia and treat it with antibiotics, doesn’t matter whether it is Mr. A or Mrs. B. This is where I feel that is going to be the greatest change wherein we understand the host better based on a whole list of factors including their genetics, personality, will to fight etc. This would apply on the preventive side as well: more and more people will pay attention to modifiable risk factors....smoking, obesity, exercise, antioxidants, vitamin D, omega 3, Sudoku, and the list goes on.
On a personal front we would all be in our late sixties, hopefully healthy and looking forward to meeting again. Kids would be grown up having their own lives and struggles probably thinking of their own 10 year reunions. Many of us would be grandparents. Many of us would be retired. Will the next 25 years would be a general natural extension of the last 25 or would they be dramatically different? An indutrialist who currently employs 100 would try to reach 250, would a teacher continue to teach but just aim to do it better, would a physician do generally the same job but keep with the changing technology? Or some of us will try new careers and adventures and aim to really follow our dreams that probably wasn’t possible over the last quarter decade for most. Some of these are simple: travel the world, read a lot of books, learn to play a musical instrument, start playing golf etc. Some of them are relatively complicated: go back to university and do a PhD in world history, or learn to fly a plane or run an orphanage or write a book.....what makes you tick? So what are you going to do?
I leave with a quote from Einstein: “I don’t like to make predictions especially about the future”.
No harm in trying anyway. Comments and discussion are always welcome......
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